The EU is facing four concurrent crises that may call into question its very existence: the EMU, Brexit, refugees, and terrorism. This semester, the Jean Monnet Center for International and Regional Economic Law & Justice at NYU School of Law has had the privilege of hosting a series of fascinating seminars on these traumatic circumstances. Georgette Lalis, Senior Emile Noel Fellow, and Samuel Dahan, Emile Noel Fellow, have forwarded us this overview of those debates along with some provocative reflections of their own on the path forward.
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What has emerged from this semester's enriching debates at the Jean Monnet Center is that the EU is facing both circumstantial crises – the refugee and terrorism crises – but also, and more significantly, structural problems coming from within: Brexit and the EMU crisis.
The EMU crisis occurred as the result of the financial meltdown of 2008; but it is nevertheless an institutional crisis, predictable and indeed predicted, that resulted from flaws in the structure of the eurozone itself. While is it true that the EMU has succeeded in partially addressing these issues, the euro area is still faced with both an economic and a governance crisis. In a nutshell, the decision-making process in the euro area is unnecessarily complex, lacks transparency and democratic legitimacy, and calls into question the balance between Member States and European Institutions. We, the Emile Noel Fellows, are privileged to have the opportunity to conduct research on the legal aspects of the crisis and explore potential avenues of addressing the EMU’s flaws. Our research will eventually take the form of a Jean Monnet Working Paper.
While the Brexit crisis has very different causes from the EMU crisis, it is also a political deadlock that threatens the integrity of the EU as a whole. Brexit is the climax of a long and difficult British-European relationship in which the UK has always kept one foot outside the EU. A potential Brexit, let alone the threat it might represent to the integrity of the EU, would substantially change the nature of the UK’s membership in the EU (although the latter is already limited by important opt-outs.) From a reputational/formal standpoint, the departure of one of the EU’s strongest members would set a bad precedent and could trigger a domino effect, ultimately leading to deeper fractures in the Union. Much has been written on the economic effects of a Brexit for both the UK and the EU. It is clear to us, however, that a Brexit at this time would send a bad signal to the outside world concerning the cohesion of the EU. On Friday, February 12, former UK cabinet minister and Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls eloquently described the “backward relationship” between the UK and the EU in a discussion entitled "Brexit or Bremain? Britain’s Fraught Relationship with the EU.” While Balls made a strong argument in favor of ‘Bremain’, the outcome will only be known in June after the UK referendum.
As for the refugee and terrorism crises, while they clearly have an EU dimension, they are closely linked to outside factors and to national politics. Though public opinion often associates one with the other, it is important to emphasize that they have very different origins and implications. Both are the result of circumstantial/non-institutional pressures, and the juxtapositions between these two sets of crises leaves room for significant improvements in the situation through efficient coordination of national policies. Although the refugee and terrorism crises do not stem from European institutional flaws as such, they may well turn into an institutional nightmare if the Union doesn’t learn from its mistakes and mount a quick response to strengthen its immigration and security policy coordination.
